… After meeting Dmitriev, Witkoff and Kushner also discussed the plan with Zelensky’s national security adviser, Ruste
… m Umerov.
… U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll presented the plan to Zelensky on Thursday in writing. Afterward, Zelensky said he
… was prepared to hold talks about it with Trump and his team.
… Between the lines: Zelensky described the plan as the U.S. “vision” but not a final offer. He said Ukraine had been
… clear about its red lines and would give its input to make the plan “truly meaningful.”
…
… A U.S. official also told Axios the administration sees the plan as a “live document” that can be changed based on d
… iscussions with the parties. The official claimed Ukraine was positive about many of the points during the negotiati
… ons and managed to incorporate some of its positions.
… Trump has also given his personal endorsement to the plan, the full details of which had not previously been publish
… ed.
… “We are making a serious effort to find a solution that will end the war in Ukraine, the same way we ended the war i
… n Gaza. We believe this plan is not easy but it is good for Ukraine,” the senior White House official said.
… Zoom in: In addition to the territorial concessions asked of Ukraine, the document says there would be a “decisive c
… oordinated military response” in the event of further Russian incursions onto Ukrainian territory. It does not say w
… hat role the U.S. would play in such a response.
…
… The plan also includes economic components that would see some frozen Russian assets go toward rebuilding Ukraine, s
… anctions on Russia lifted, the U.S. and Russia agreeing to partner long-term in areas like AI and mining, and Russia
… returning to the G8.
… All parties would get amnesty for their actions during the war, presumably meaning Russian officials and soldiers co
… uld not be prosecuted for war crimes.
… The plan also calls for Ukraine to hold elections within 100 days of a deal. Zelensky told Axios in September that h
… e wanted to hold elections once there was a ceasefire.
… Worth noting: The 28 points below reflect the current U.S. plan as of Thursday, barring minor changes to the languag
… e as it has been amended. It includes annotations from Axios in italics for the purposes of clarity.
…
… The full plan
… 1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
…
… 2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of
… the last 30 years will be considered settled.
…
… 3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
…
… 4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues an
… d create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation
… and future economic development.
…
… 5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
…
… A U.S. official told Axios this would be an explicit security guarantee for Ukraine from the U.S., the first time th
… at has officially been on the table during these talks, though the proposal does not offer further details on what i
… t entails.
… 6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
…
… Note: Ukraine’s army currently has 800,000-850,000 personnel, and had around 250,000 beforethe war, according to a U
… krainian official.
… 7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its stat
… utes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
…
… 8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
…
… Note: NATO countries including France and the U.K. have been working on separate proposals that would include small
… numbers of European troops on Ukrainian soil after the war. This plan appears to disregard that possibility.
… 9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
…
… 10. The U.S. guarantee:
…
… The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
… If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
… If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be rei
… nstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
… If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed inval
… id.
… 11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market whi
… le this issue is being considered.
…
… 12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
…
… The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers,
… and artificial intelligence.
… The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infr
… astructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
… Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and
… residential areas.
… Infrastructure development.
… Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
… The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
… 13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
…
… The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
… The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of
… energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projec
… ts in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
… Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
… 14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:
…
… $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
… The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of inv
… estment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen
… Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in spe
… cific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong i
… ncentive not to return to conflict.
… 15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance w
… ith all provisions of this agreement.
…
… 16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
…
… 17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control
… of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
…
… Note: New START, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, is due to expire in February.
… 18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapo
… ns.
…
… 19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity pro
… duced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
…
… 20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understandi
… ng and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
…
… Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
… Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian m
… edia and education. (Note: Similar ideas were incorporated into Trump’s 2020 Israel-Palestine peace plan).
… All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
… 21. Territories:
…
… Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
… Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the li
… ne of contact.
… Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
… Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone
… will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Ru
… ssian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
… 22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to chan
… ge these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
…
… 23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be r
… eached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
…
… 24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
…
… All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis.
… All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
… A family reunification program will be implemented.
… Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
… 25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
…
… 26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not t
… o make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
…
… 27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council
… , headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
…
… Note: This is the same general structure Trump proposed to govern the Gaza peace agreement.
… 28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat t
… o agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.
This article describes a 28-point plan proposed by President Trump’s administration for ending the war in Ukraine.
The plan has several key components:

1. Territorial concessions: Ukraine would be required to give up additional territory in the east, including
   Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, which would be recognized as de facto Russian.
2. Military limitations: The size of Ukraine’s military would be capped at 600,000 personnel, down from its
   current size of 800,000-850,000.
3. NATO membership: Ukraine would agree not to join NATO, and NATO would include a provision in its statutes
   that Ukraine would not be admitted in the future.
4. Security guarantees: The US would provide an explicit security guarantee for Ukraine, although the details
   of this guarantee are not specified.
5. Economic components: The plan includes provisions for rebuilding Ukraine’s economy, including a $100
   billion investment fund and the lifting of sanctions on Russia.
6. Amnesty: All parties involved in the conflict would receive full amnesty for their actions during the war.

The plan was drafted by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff with input from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jared
Kushner. It has been discussed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has not ruled it out, although he
described it as a “US vision” rather than a final offer.

Some of the key points in the plan are:

• Russia would be reintegrated into the global economy, including the lifting of sanctions and its re-entry into
  the G8.
• The US and Russia would agree to partner on long-term economic projects, including energy, natural resources,
  and artificial intelligence.
• Ukraine would hold elections within 100 days of a deal being reached.
• A joint American-Russian working group would be established to promote compliance with the agreement.

Overall, the plan appears to favor Russian interests, as it would allow Russia to maintain control over
territories in eastern Ukraine and limit Ukraine’s ability to join NATO. However, it also includes provisions for
rebuilding Ukraine’s economy and providing security guarantees for the country.

Can you please think critically about the plan?
I’ll analyze the plan from a critical perspective.

Concerns and potential flaws:

1. Imbalanced territorial concessions: The plan requires Ukraine to cede significant territory, including
   Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, which are currently under Russian control. This could be seen as a major concession
   that undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
2. Lack of security guarantees for Ukraine: While the plan mentions an explicit security guarantee from the
   US, it is unclear what specific actions the US would take to enforce this guarantee in the event of future Russian
   aggression. The conditions under which the guarantee would be invalidated (e.g., if Ukraine invades Russia) seem
   one-sided and potentially undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
3. Restrictions on Ukraine’s military: Capping the size of Ukraine’s military at 600,000 personnel could limit
   its ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression. This restriction may also create a power imbalance
   in the region, making it more difficult for Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty.
4. NATO membership restrictions: By requiring Ukraine to agree not to join NATO, the plan effectively limits
   Ukraine’s ability to pursue its own foreign policy and security interests. This could be seen as an attempt to
   restrict Ukraine’s sovereignty and undermine its relationships with other European countries.
5. Lack of accountability for war crimes: The plan’s provision for full amnesty for all parties involved in
   the conflict raises concerns about accountability for war crimes and human rights abuses committed during the
   conflict. This could send a message that such actions are tolerated or condoned, potentially undermining efforts
   to promote justice and human rights.
6. Unclear economic benefits for Ukraine: While the plan includes provisions for rebuilding Ukraine’s economy,
   it is unclear how these measures would be implemented and what specific benefits Ukraine would receive. The $100
   billion investment fund, for example, seems to be largely controlled by the US and Russia, with uncertain benefits
   for Ukraine.
7. Russian influence and control: The plan’s emphasis on reintegrating Russia into the global economy and
   promoting long-term economic cooperation between the US and Russia could be seen as an attempt to increase Russian
   influence in the region. This may undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and create new dependencies that could be
   exploited by Russia.

Questions and uncertainties:

1. How would the plan be enforced?: The agreement relies on a “Peace Council” headed by President Trump, but
   it is unclear what mechanisms would be in place to ensure compliance with the agreement or resolve disputes.
2. What are the consequences of non-compliance?: The plan mentions sanctions for violations, but it is unclear
   what specific actions would trigger these sanctions or how they would be enforced.
3. How would Ukraine’s interests be represented?: The plan seems to prioritize US and Russian interests over
   those of Ukraine. It is unclear how Ukraine’s government and people would be involved in the implementation of the
   agreement or how their concerns would be addressed.

Alternative perspectives:

1. Ukrainian perspective: From a Ukrainian perspective, this plan may be seen as an attempt to impose a
   negotiated settlement that favors Russian interests over those of Ukraine. The territorial concessions, military
   restrictions, and limitations on NATO membership could be perceived as undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and
   security.
2. European perspective: European countries may view the plan with skepticism, particularly given the emphasis
   on US-Russia cooperation and the potential for increased Russian influence in the region. The plan’s provisions
   for rebuilding Ukraine’s economy may also raise concerns about the distribution of funds and the potential for
   corruption.

Overall, while the plan attempts to address some of the key issues related to the conflict in Ukraine, it raises
significant concerns about balance, accountability, and the representation of Ukrainian interests. A more nuanced
and inclusive approach that prioritizes Ukrainian sovereignty and security would be necessary to achieve a lasting
and sustainable peace in the region.

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Filed under: Uncategorized - @ November 21, 2025 4:52 pm